Saturday, 28 July 2018

Weekend update - US equity indexes

It was a very mixed week for US equity indexes, with net weekly changes ranging from +2.01% (Trans), +1.57% (Dow), +1.06% (nyse comp'), +0.61% (sp'500), -1.03% (nasdaq comp'), to -1.97% (R2K). Near term outlook offers cooling of around 1-2%, before resuming upward.

Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes


Despite ending the week on a rather bearish note, the sp' managed a fourth consecutive net weekly gain, +0.61% at 2818. The intra week high of 2848 was a mere 24pts shy of the Jan' historic high.

Best guess: s/t cooling to the 2760s, before resuming upward. New historic highs look on track in August. Big target remains the 2950/3047 zone, which is where I anticipate the market becoming seriously stuck.

Nasdaq comp'

It was a very mixed week for the Nasdaq comp', breaking a new historic high of 7933, but swinging lower into the weekend, settling -1.06% at 7737. S/t bearish with the main market. The 8000s still look due in August.


The mighty Dow climbed for a fourth consecutive week, +1.57% to 25451, with a new multi-month high of 25587. S/t bearish with the main market. Note underlying macd (blue bar histogram) cycle has turned positive.

NYSE comp'

The master index gained 1.03% to 12921. S/t bearish, but new historic highs look viable in early September.


The R2K unraveled into the weekend, settling -1.97% to 1663. S/t bearish, with a viable test of the 1610 price threshold. Alarm bells with any closes <1600, but that does not seem likely.


The 'old leader' saw a very significant net weekly gain of 2.01% to 10957. Price momentum is set to turn positive within 1-2 weeks.


Four indexes saw net weekly gains, whilst two settled sig' lower.

The Nasdaq comp' broke a new historic high.

The broader m/t trend remains unquestionably bullish.

YTD performance:

The Nasdaq continues to lead, +12.1%, with the sp +5.4%, and the nyse comp' being the laggard, +0.9%.

Looking ahead 

Another truck load of earnings are due, notably: CAT, STX, AAPL, TSLA, X, SQ, PBR

M - Pending home sales
T - Pers' income/outlays, employment costs, Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, consumer con'
W - Vehicle sales, ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction, EIA Pet' report.

At 2pm the Fed' will issue a press release of the latest FOMC. No rate hike can be expected, but the statement should give an update that the QT program is at/close to hitting $50bn a month. There will NOT be a press conf'.

T - Weekly jobs, factory orders
F - Monthly jobs, intl' trade, PMI/ISM serv'

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Have a good weekend

*the next post on this page will likely appear 5pm EST on Monday.