Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
Despite a net weekly decline of -0.2%, the sp' is currently net higher for an 8th month, with a new historic high of 2597. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is just flat lining on the high side, showing no sign of a downward swing. The key 10MA stands at 2456. Rising trend from early 2016 is around the 2470s.
Best guess: near term upside to the 2600s by Thanksgiving. The original year end target of 2683 is just about technically viable. More broadly, 3K is a valid target by mid 2018, not least if commodities can break upward (CRB >197s).
Equity bears have nothing to tout unless a bearish monthly close, which (to me) would constitute a settlement under the key 10MA. Keep in mind, the 10MA is rising around 35pts a month, so from Dec'1st onward, it'll be around 2490.. possibly even the 2500 threshold.
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Nasdaq comp'
The tech remains broadly super strong, having seen a new hist' high of 6795. The 7000s are clearly viable before year end. The 8000s are a valid target for late spring/summer 2018. Recent earnings from most tech stocks have come in fine, with some (such as INTC, MU, NVDA) outright superb. The 'comp @ 10k' is a valid target for 2019, although I realise most will be laughably dismissive of it.
Dow
The mighty Dow remains broadly strong, with a recent historic high of 23602. The key 10MA is currently in the 21700s, and will be around 22000 from Dec'1st onward. A year end close in the 24000s is very much within range. Things are arguably only bearish with a monthly close <21500, and that sure doesn't look likely.
NYSE comp'
The 'master index' saw a net weekly decline of -0.4%, holding just a little shy of the Oct' historic high of 12415. Near term outlook offers renewed upside to the 12500s. Upper monthly bollinger will offer the 12700s 'on a stretch' by year end. 13k looks out of range until at least early 2018.
R2K
The R2K settled lower for the 4th week of the past 5, -1.3% at 1475. However, broadly, the R2K is super strong. Another push upward is due, not least if financials climb into year end on 'higher rate hopes in 2018'. Only bearish if <1425.
Trans
The 'old leader' - Trans, saw a very sig' net weekly decline of -2.6%. Underlying MACD cycle ticked lower for a second week. At the current rate, a bearish cross will be due by early December. However, considering earnings and econ-data, the broadly super strong main market, the tranny should resume upward. A 2017 settlement >10k is very much within range.
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Summary
Net weekly declines for all US indexes, but its highly notable that the sp', dow, and nasdaq comp' still broke new historic highs.
Most indexes have around 4-5% of downside buffer, before the core upward trend from early 2016 would be challenged.
Equity bears have nothing to tout unless the majority of indexes see a monthly close under their respective 10MAs.
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Looking ahead
Notable earnings: JD (Mon'), HD (Tues') CSCO (Wed'), WMT (Thurs'), FL (Fri')
M - US T-budget
T - PPI
W - CPI, retail sales, empire state, bus' invent' EIA Pet' report
T - Weekly jobs, phil' fed, import/export prices, indust' prod, housing market index
F - Housing starts *OPEX*
*there are a few fed officials on the loose, notably: Bullard (Tues), Evans, (Wed' in London), Mester (Thurs)
**As Friday will be opex, expect a lot of price chop with increasing vol' into the weekend.
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