Friday, 19 February 2016

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately lower, sp -8pts @ 1917 (intra low range 1930/15). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, both settled lower by around -0.6%. Near term outlook offers Friday weakness, but broadly, the 1950/60s look due next week. Whether 2K is hit before mid March... is arguably broadly inconsequential.




*next upside target on the Trans remains the 200dma, and that will remain in the 7900s for the next few weeks. Sustained action >8K looks entirely out of range.

As for the sp'500, any near term retrace looks limited to around the 1900 threshold.. before resuming higher to the 1950/60s.

Sustained action >1970 will not be easy... as almost everyone recognises. A brief test of the 200dma and the 10mma around sp'2K looks just about viable by mid March.

From there though... first downside target is the 1750/25 zone.

a little more later...