sp'weekly8f
sp'weekly, 2008/09, MARCON
Summary
*for further details on my MARCON system, I'd merely suggest you go look at the other blog! All the details are there.
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I could reel on for many pages about the current situation. Frankly, I'm tired though.. which is kinda scary, considering its only Monday.
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In any case, first we need to see the current bounce from sp'1812 conclude. The issue in the immediate term is whether the bounce should be based on a time retrace starting from the sp'2116 (Nov'3rd) high or 2081 (Dec'29th).
sp'daily5b - two scenarios
It matters because we could be talking about 3-4 weeks of chop/upside, rather than maxing out later this week.
Based on the 2008/09 pattern.... we won't likely see the next rollover until mid February.
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Update from Mr C.
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Looking ahead
There is a fair bit of data tomorrow... Case-Shiller HPI, PMI serv', consumer con', Richmond Fed'
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As for whether we floor in the 1600s or lower...
I don't have a time machine, I sure can't say for certain. Its all about the probabilities, right?
What I can say right now is that an exceptionally bearish price structure IS there. Indeed, the giant bear flag (call it a wave 2?) from Aug-Dec' has already been confirmed with new multi-year lows in most US/world markets.
The giant monthly cycles are increasingly in favour to the bears... with a technical setup soon to mirror that of Sept'2008.
We also have a number of black-swans ready to fly. There is Deutsche Bank, that would be a system threat to the EU. How would the ECB/Draghi react to that?
There are numerous corporates set to implode, not least those in the oil/gas and mining sectors.
With each day from here, I'll try my best to refine the targets - including the aspect of the time frame. As ever feel free to share your own thoughts/outlook.
Goodnight from London