sp'daily5
VIX'daily3
Summary
Quad-opex naturally saw a lot of chop, leaning on the moderately weaker side.
However, the VIX did reflect underlying market confidence, as it cooled into the weekend, which resulted in a significant net weekly decline.. having briefly seen the 20s in pre-market on Monday.
I will note there is a threat of the sp'2070/50 zone - where there are multiple aspects of support. That would likely require the fed to raise rates next Wednesday, and frankly.. that just doesn't seem at all likely.
I remain of the view the fed won't raise until the Dec' FOMC, which would be a far simpler time, not least as the US election will be out of the way.
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USD, weekly'2
A net weekly gain of 0.8%, settling at DXY 95.99.
RE: H/S scenario. Any break above DXY 96.25 next week would provisionally trash the scenario. A break <94.75 would break the mid term rising trend from May, and would open the door to the 92.00-91.50 zone before year end.
My best guess remains the same... no rate hike until December. If correct, it'd give the USD the excuse for further cooling across Oct/early Dec', before a bounce into early 2017, and then significant weakness across the summer/autumn.
By definition, the H/S scenario offers the DXY 83/82s. I understand how that could be seen by many as crazy talk. First things first... lets see how the USD trades with next week's Fed decision.
Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' 12pm EST