Oil set to claw above the $50 threshold

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp -4pts @ 2181 (intra high 2184). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.2% and -0.2% respectively. VIX settled +4.8% @ 12.51. Near term outlook still threatens a brief hit of 2170, before another attempt to break into the 2200s.


sp'daily5

VIX'daily3

Summary

Another rather mixed day in equity land. Price action remains pretty choppy, but with notable strength in the energy sector.

VIX remains very subdued. The low teens remain a threat, but broadly, single digit VIX remains a real possibility this autumn.
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Oil clawing toward $50

With the latest EIA report showing a net draw of a monstrous -14.5 million barrels, oil surged, settling +$2.12 (4.7%) at $47.62. The psy' level of $50 looks set to be tested within the near term.


WTIC oil, weekly

Broader price structure is highly suggestive we will see $60 within 3-5 months. A viable inv' H/S formation (more clearly seen in many energy stocks) would likely equate to WTIC oil in the 70/75 zone by spring 2017.

... and if that is the case.. it would bode for sp'2400/500s.

Goodnight from London