Saturday 3 September 2016

Net weekly gains

US equity indexes closed moderately higher, sp +9pts @ 2179. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled higher by 0.4% and 1.0% respectively. VIX settled -11.1% @ 11.98. Near term outlook continues to offer new historic highs in the 2200s, as a Sept' rate hike is almost certainly off the menu.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

With the jobs data coming in a little under the 'goldilocks' target, the market decided that meant the threat of a Sept' rate hike could be removed from the menu. Naturally, that saw equities rally (somewhat choppily) into the long holiday weekend.

VIX was crushed back to the 11s. It is notable that the bigger weekly chart is offering single digit VIX... as low as the 7s. The key 20 threshold looks out of range for the rest of the month... as rates simply won't likely be raised until the Dec' FOMC.

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Net weekly gains

sp'weekly1b



Trans'weekly



Summary

A net weekly gain of 10pts (0.5%) for the sp', whilst the 'old leader' - Transports, climbed a far more significant 1.6%... settling at 7946, just shy of key resistance of 8K. Broadly.. we're set for further upside.

I'd agree there is always of a 'trouble' during the Sept-Oct'  trading period, but for now, any such bearish talk can be seen as crazy talk unless we're trading at least <2070.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will appear Sat' @ 12pm, and will detail the World monthly indexes. It remains the most important post I offer each month.