Tuesday, 5 April 2016

10am update - opening weakness

US equities open broadly lower, with clear breaks of trend across a number of indexes. The VIX has already broken above last Friday's high, currently +10% in the 15.60s. The sp'2020/15 zone - with VIX 18s, look a valid target within a few days.


sp'daily5



VIX'daily3



Summary

So.... now the obvious issue is 'will this end like last Friday?'

My view... no.
--

We have clear breaks of trend on the bigger daily cycles, but it will be some WEEKS before we have clarity that the series of 'marginal lower highs' - from May'2015, will remain intact.
--

notable blue candle...

sp'weekly6


A blue candle is a good candle :)
--

To be clear though... I would refer ANYONE to the price action of last Nov/Dec'... that is what seems probable across the next few weeks.

On no realistic outlook does a straight run to the mid/low 1900s look viable in the near term.
-

yours.. short.. but looking to close out this Wed-Friday.