Friday, 8 April 2016

10am update - opening gains

US equities open broadly higher, unquestionably helped by Oil +4.6% in the $38s. VIX is naturally back in cooling mode, -6% in the low 15s. A net daily decline still seems probable... but a weekly close in the sp'2020s - with VIX 17s, look out of range.




Once again, it now comes back to your underlying viewpoint.

Is the market....

1. Going to broadly climb.. to new historic highs.


2. continued chop.. but with lower highs.. and lower lows.. in the weeks and months ahead.

Best bearish case for today is a weekly close in the sp'2039-35 zone... with VIX 16.25/16.50.

notable weakness, TVIX, daily

An ugly start to the day, a weekly close in the $5s sure won't be easy.

yours truly is holding short, I expect better levels later today.