Friday, 25 March 2016

The highly vulnerable Euro

It was a moderately negative week for the Euro, which settled -0.8% against the USD, to 111.81. There is strong resistance in the 113s, and it would seem that with a looming 'BREXIT', the Euro will take out the March 2015 low of the 104s. From there.. its open air to the 95/85 zone.

Euro, weekly'20yr

USD, weekly


re: Euro. There is massive resistance around the 1.20 threshold. Price structure is a clear bear flag that now stretches across a full year.

First downside target is the 105/104 zone. Any price action in the 103s would bode for a straight run to the 95/85 zone.

re: USD... broadly choppy since spring 2015, with a clear double top from natural resistance of DXY 100. Current price structure is offering a back test of the old declining resistance.

An eventual break >100 seems extremely probable, from there.. first target are the 120s.

The implications of such a Euro decline and USD surge should be clear to most traders. In particular, Oil - and related energy stocks would likely be obliterated.

Goodnight from London

Special note...

The DISQUS comments system is still having problems. I am still able to receive and reply to comments, but they won't likely appear in a given post. This issue is not specific to these pages, with MANY blogs/sites affected across the world. I'd imagine it will be fixed within a few days.
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