It was another bearish week for US equities, with net weekly changes ranging from -1.7% (NYSE comp'), -0.8% (sp'500), to +1.5% (Transports). Near term outlook offers a continued bounce into the sp'1900s, before powerful downside in March. A mini crash wave looks due, at least to the 1750/25 zone.
Lets take our regular look at six of the US indexes
The sp'500 closed net lower for the second consecutive week, -15pts (0.8%) at 1864, but that was a rather powerful 54pts above the Thursday 2.30pm low. Notably, since the Nov'2015 high of sp'2116, the sp' has seen 8 weekly declines from 15 weeks.
This week's candle is offering a spike floor, with a marginal lower low of 1810. First upside is the weekly 10MA, which next week will be around 1930.
Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower for a second consecutive week. At the current rate, even if the market went straight up, it will take at least four weeks to see a bullish cross.
Best guess: bounce upside to the 1920/30 zone - where the 50dma will be lurking into end month, a little chop... and then more powerful downside from mid March into April.
The sp'1750/25 zone looks a rather easy target, things will get real tricky in the 1625/1575 zone.
Unless equity bears can attain a monthly close <1600 (<1500 to be decisive), any talk of equity targets <1K, remain in the realm of fantasy land.
The tech' saw a moderate net weekly decline of -0.6% @ 4337. First bounce target are the 4600s. Sustained action >4700 looks very difficult. In terms of spring downside, first target is 4K, then 3000/2750.
The mighty Dow saw a Thursday low of 15503, but settled the week -231pts (1.4%) @ 15973. Further bounce upside to 16400/500 looks due. From there... first downside target is the 14200/000 zone, and then 13400. Sustained action <13K looks very difficult.
The master index continues to broadly decline, with a net weekly fall of -1.7%, settling @ 9229. The broader downside target is around 8K.
The second market leader - R2K, broke a new multi-year low of 943, but settling -13pts (1.4%) at 971. There is viable near term upside to the 1040/50 zone. Broader downside remains the 875/850 zone.
The 'old leader' managed a fourth consecutive net weekly gain, +1.5% @ 7048. It is notable that the Tranny has now climbed almost 10% since the Jan'20th low of 6403. There appears to be further near term upside to the 7200/300 zone. Broader downside to the 5500/5000 zone looks very probable. Best downside case is around 4500, and that would make for a clear 50% crash from the Nov'2014 high.
Despite ending on a very positive note, it was another bearish week for the US equity market, with most indexes breaking new multi-year lows.
The weekly candles for all indexes are highly suggestive of a near term bounce into end month. However, keeping the bigger monthly cycles in mind, much lower levels look due in March/April.
It will be a shortened week, but there are a few bits and pieces of note.
M - CLOSED, although notably, China will re-open, after an entire week off.
T - Empire state, housing market
W - housing starts, PPI, indust' prod', FOMC minutes
T - weekly jobs, phil' fed, leading indicators, EIA report
F - CPI, *OPEX*
*there will be a sprinkling of Fed officials, notably Bullard, AH on Wednesday.
Back on Tuesday................... unless Elaine was right