sp'60min
Summary
Well, for a billion people or so in Asia, its a happy new year.. year of the Monkey.
Despite the overnight declines, I'm still very concerned about a whipsaw higher, as Yellen is due this Wednesday.
Cyclically, we're going to open very low on the smaller 15/60min cycles, so there will be serious threat of a latter day recovery.
Q. Do I think we'll see <1812 before >1947 ? Right now... still no.
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early movers...
CHK -8.5% @ $2.80... market continues to warn this one might disappear
FCX -4.3% @ $5.44.. another one on the list.
SDRL -9.6% @ $1.87... and another.
NFLX -4% @ $79... I guess a PE in the 300s was no longer tolerable.
TVIX +8.3% in the $10.80s, but still a clear $2 below the Jan 20th high when sp'1812.
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Doomer chat, Hunter with the infamous Mannarino
Clearly, we're headed broadly lower into the spring, but for now, I still consider any talk of sub sp'1600 (equiv' to Dow 13K or so), in the realm of fantasy land.
Until we see a monthly close <sp'1500 (to be decisive), the deflationary collapse doomers should be relatively mute.
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Overnight action...
China: CLOSED... for spring festival.
Japan: +1.1%@ 17004
Germany: currently -3.0% @ 9009. The big 10K looks a long way up... with next big level, 8K - the double top of 2000/2007.
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Have a good Monday
9.41am... Ugly open.... with a lot of chatter/rumours about CHK.
A key aspect of this spring will likely be capitulation in the oil/gas/mining sector.
Some of the mid tier names are going to disappear. The likely suspects should be pretty clear by now.
VIX +12% in the 26s.... kinda interesting, but still nothing hyper.