Thursday 7 January 2016

1pm update - VIX breaks a new high

Whilst equities have cooled back to the low sp'1960s, it is notable that the VIX has broken a new intra high of 23.88. The 25/26s look an easy target, if sp'1920/00 zone. It remains the case that any price action <1900 would likely lead to a very brief, but rather severe cascade to the 1700s.


VIX'60min



sp'15min



Summary

So... VIX breaks a new high.. whilst the indexes continue to churn out what is arguably just another bear flag.
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ohh, and I realise some are still bullish about the China circuit breaker issue, but then.. the 'breaker issue' is something I've occasionally noted for a few years.

Breakers unquestionably make the situation worse.

Ironically today, no one has brought up the issue that US breaker levels were tightened in the past year or two.
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1.14pm.. Well, with a new low of 1953, the bear flag is already confirmed.... along with confirmation via VIX 24s.

A close in the 1940s is now pretty likely...with 1920/00 zone for the Friday open.

The ultimate issue is how Friday closes. A close near the low... and Monday will be likely crashy.

Mainstream are clearly getting twitchy..


 as Cramer is being dragged on for sporadic appearences during the day shows...