12pm update - this is not capitulation

Despite the sp -50pts @ 1831, there is still no sign that we've seen short term capitulation. Indeed, the bigger weekly cycles (big bear flag from Aug-Dec) have always suggested a basic fib' retrace target of sp'1730. VIX is similarly yet to see any blow off top.


sp'weekly8d

VIX'weekly

Summary

Suffice to add, we're still due capitulation... and I'd guess that won't be today.

Right now, the 1780s look an easy target.. whether tomorrow or Friday, makes little difference.

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I could reel off a long list of absolutely imploding stocks, its the usual suspects of course...

AA -6%
CNX -10%
CHK -7%
FCX -10%
SDRL -20%, market is effectively pricing it as warning of bankruptcy.
RIG -5%

even NFLX is -5%, despite earnings initially pleasing the market.

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VIX update from Mr T.



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time for tea :)
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12.26pm... With the Oct' 2014 low of sp'1820 broken.. another tranche of long-stops are hit.. with a market snap lower.

Next level.. 1780/70 or so.... possible today..  in any case.... VIX is finally starting to show some upside kick.... +19% in the 31s.