Thursday, 26 November 2015

King Dollar flirting with DXY 100

Whilst equities saw a day of nano scale price chop, there was notable strength in the USD, which briefly traded back above the giant psy' level of DXY 100 (intra high 100.23). A November monthly close >100 looks a little difficult.

USD, monthly

USD, weekly


Price structure is a clear giant bull flag, as better seen on the weekly/monthly charts.

The DXY 100 threshold is clearly huge resistance.. and we did see some notable cooling from DXY 100 today.

Re: Interest rates...

If no rate rise... USD will dramatically cool.... there is little doubt of this.

If a rate rise... USD might still see a brief cooling, as a 'sell the news' event. Broadly though, the USD should merely put in a higher low (likely 96/95) in Dec/Jan, before breaking and holding DXY 100.


Looking ahead

Thursday: US markets are closed, but the rest of the world will certainly be open.

Friday: no scheduled data.... with the market closing early at 1pm

Goodnight from London