Friday, 4 September 2015

2pm update - remaining broadly weak

US equities remain weak, with the sp -34pts @ 1916, with the VIX +12% in the 28.90s. Regardless of any minor wave higher into the close, the US markets are set to end a bearish week.. on a bearish note. If China/Asia have bad Mon/Tuesday sessions, the US market has a real problem at the Tuesday open.


sp'60min


VIX'60min


Summary

*like the sp'500, there is a marginal break of the hourly trend of the VIX
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All the smaller 5/15/60min equity cycles are now on the low side.

Yet it remains a case that few traders will want to be buying into the weekend (although why didn't that thought occur to me yesterday afternoon?).

Anyway... there is a small chance that the algos might be able to do a short-stop cascade before the weekly close.. but even then, sp' is still set to close significantly lower, at least -20pts.
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AAPL remains stuck under the near term declining trend.

15min

$110s by the close are still possible, but I'm not exiting for that. I'll hold across into Tuesday.

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2.27pm.. sp'1912... VIX 29.40s..... and even though this is often a turn time in the day... right now.. it just looks lousy.

notable weakness: BABA -4.6% in the 63s....

Broadly, market seems increasingly concerned about next Monday's China open.

China ETF:    FXI -4.2%