sp'daily5
sp'weekly
Summary
*it would be really useful for the equity bears to break below last weeks low of sp'2063.
--
A big day is ahead. We're currently net lower on the week by around 1% for the sp'500. A weekly close <2070 would make for a very bearish close, and offer further clarity that the market has maxed out for the summer, if not the year.
--
Overnight China action: Broad upside across the day, settling +2.3% @ 3744. There remains a high risk the PBOC will cut rates this Sunday.
-
standing by for the jobs data (due 8.30am EST)................
8.31am net gains: 215k, headline jobless rate: 5.3%. . inline.
Indexes: moderate weakness, sp -3pts... 2080.
Eyes to the USD and bonds....
USD +0.3% DXY 98.10s....
-
Now.. its merely a case of whether we can break <sp'2072 today....
-
8.34am.. with stronger USD.. commodities under pressure, Gold -$4... with Oil -0.7%
8.40am.. sp -5pts.. 2078... just 6pts away from a clear break.. Of course.... the Dow/Trans... well below such equivalent levels.
KEY signal... bonds just jumped... TLT +0.3% in the $123s... a break into the 124s today would likely equate to sp'2060s.
Bonds look set for broad upside into early Oct'... and that sure isn't going to help equities.
-
8.56am... micro jump... sp +2pts... 2085. Hmmm
USD remains +0.4% 98.20s.... underlying downward pressure on commodities....increases.
9.00am.. sp +5pts... 2088...
Arguably... another opening minor gain... set to fail....
For those not already long VIX... its a viable entry this morning.... unless of course you think we're headed to new highs into Sept/Oct.
.. but then... what about the technical breaks in AAPL... DIS, INTC.... etc ?
-
9.05am.. So... mixed chop in pre-market.... but we have some underlying key moves in the USD.. and bonds. Both are supportive of the bearish equity/commodity case.
USD in the 98s... it does bode for a key break above the giant DXY 100 threshold... and onward to the 120s.
I myself am still churning on 'how the hell can equities rebound after October.. if USD is broadly climbing across 2016'.
-
9.17am. Not surprisingly, the cheerleaders on clown finance TV are getting twitchy a viable seventh consecutive net daily decline for the Dow.. not seen since the mini crash wave of July/Aug 2011.
.. sp +1pt... set to open 2084.
Eyes on TLT +0.5% in the $123.40s... set to break new cycle highs.
-
9.38am.. battling it out... a few are clearly buying on support.. now at 2075.
Broadly.. the weekly/monthly cycles are clear...
*opening VIX reversal candle.