sp'daily5
Summary
We have a very dynamic week ahead.
Not surprisingly, futures have recovered half of last nights initial declines.. as some 'meddling' is going on from various central banks - not least the Swiss.
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Lets get one thing clear though...
The Greeks do not have the money to cover the payment to the IMF tomorrow.
The ECB are currently (who knows if they'll change their mind).. said they will pull the bank liquidty program if a payment is missed. In theory, the Greek banking system will implode to zero as of midnight Tuesday.
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In terms of equity price action...
Primary target should be the 2060/50s.. where there are multiple aspects of support. Sustained action <2050 looks difficult in the current cycle.
Eyes on the VIX.. which will be prone to getting stuck in the 16/17s. I do not expect the 20s in the current cycle.
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notable early moves..
Bonds, TLT +2%.. as yields drop.
TWTR -1.8%
BAC -1.5%
TVIX/UVXY +14%
VXX +7%
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Update from a moderately bearish Oscar
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Doomer chat... Hunter with Pento
As ever... make of that... what you will.
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Overnight Chinese action: more crazy swings... from +1.5%.. to -2%.. evens.. then (limit down) -10%... settling -3.3% @ 4053. The 3400s look on track.
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Have a good Monday
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7.42am... sp -20pts... 2081...
What am I doing?
Well, I don't have an index short block, but I am long VIX.. which I will strongly consider dropping early this morning. Depending on market mood/price action, I would consider a re-long VIX in the afternoon.
VIX'daily3
I find it difficult to see the VIX going much above 16/17.
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notable weakness, NFLX -1.8% @ $640... a long down from the recent $706 high... headed for $600.. if not 525/500 by late Sept/Oct.
8.23am.. sp -20pts... 2081. Clearly... the recent double low of 2072 should be first target this morning.. along with VIX 16/17s.
With unquestionable central bank meddling, the USD is u/c @ DXY 95.50s.
8.57am notable weakness.. GREK, -16%... trading.. despite the Greek market CLOSED. Crazy!
sp -19pts.. 2082 for the open... I'd be surprised if we don't at least hit the low 2070s by 11am.
9.05am.. watching clown finance TV.. the Cramer is in full on denial again... not least about the broader implications for the other EU states.
INTC -1.4% in the $30.60s... the H/S formation would suggest an initial bounce from 29.00s.
9.27am... sp -18pts.... on balance.. weakness into 11am... typically. Then upside into mid afternoon.
9.37am.. EXITED long-VIX.. ..
9.42am.. Reversal candles all over the place... esp' R2K.. . VIX - black-fail.. maxing @ 16.81.. right in target zone.