Friday 15 May 2015

10am update - opening equity chop

US equities open with some minor mixed chop. Far more important though... Bonds continue to climb, TLT +1.0%. USD is also making a serious attempt to break the short term down trend, +0.5% in the DXY 93.90s. Oil is under major pressure, -2.2%. Metals are a little weak, Gold -$3.


TLT, daily



UUP, daily



USO, daily


Summary

*the moves in currency and bond land are arguably pretty important, and will likely shape the next few weeks.
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So.. bonds are climbing... the USD is battling for the DXY 94s... which is putting downward pressure on Oil, and that is pushing the energy stocks lower...

Oil/gas drillers, RIG/SDRL, both lower by around -3.5%

Deere (DE) -2.4%.. downgraded by the JPM, from $90 to $84.
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I see a few people looking to short the sp'500 in the 2120s, but really, it seems overly risky, as the 2140s look due before end month.. nevermind the threat of 2170s in June.

VIX continues to reflect a market that has zero concern of anything, stuck in the 12s.. with an early low of 12.41.
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10.02am. consumer sentiment.. major miss... 88s vs previous 95s .... certainly in sync with the recent disappointing retail sales data.
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10.20am.. USD turns negative... as the neg' econ data upset some.

Metals and Oil are naturally recovering as the pressure is taken off.

Strength: NFLX +3.9%.. as the momo chasers pile in
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