First... lets take a look at the USD...
USD, daily
USD, weekly
Summary
So, Draghi cut the deposit rate 10bps to -0.3% (that will really please savers), and extended QE (€60bn a month) from Sept'2016.. to at least March 2017. In effect, another €360bn of money created from nowhere.
With the market deciding this was clearly 'less than expected', the Euro soared.. and this helped crush the USD.
The ultimate issue - double top?
The bigger weekly chart is pretty clear, there is a valid scenario in that we've seen a double top at the giant DXY 100 threshold.
I'm still more bullish USD than any other FIAT currency, but for now.. there is a massive reversal underway. First support is the 95/94 zone.
Any sustained action <94 would then offer further weakness to the DXY 90 threshold. Under any reasonable outlook, I don't see the USD trading under 90.
Or maybe you think the market would place more value on the depreciating Yen or the Euro?
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Next up... US bonds.
TLT, daily
TLT, monthly2
Summary
*note the red monthly candle... unable to break above declining trend/resistance.
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A fierce net daily decline for TLT of -2.7% in the $119s. Next soft support is around 117.
On balance, the $110s look viable in spring 2016.. not least if the Fed raise rates for a second time in March/April.
If the US bond market has peaked - as some, notably Armstrong, have suggested... then first grand target for TLT will be $100, back to levels from late 2013. Things really only get interesting if the secondary target zone of 80/75 is hit.. but that is probably not viable until late 2016 at the very earliest.
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Looking ahead
Friday is action packed...
OPEC are having a bi-annual meeting in Vienna. There is high probability of a statement that will at least threaten supply cuts.
The monthly jobs data - market is expecting net gains of 190k, with a headline jobless rate of 5.0%.
*there are 3 fed officials due to speak... Bullard in the 3pm hour is especially notable.
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Goodnight from London