sp'60min
WTIC oil, daily
Summary
*awaiting CPI data..
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There is a clear upside gap around sp'2050... although that looks out of range today.
On the downside.. there is a gap around 1950... but that looks really difficult.. as the market has already seen a significant cooling of almost 6%.
Best guess.. churn in the 2040/20 zone today.
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re: interest rates
Right now, I'm increasingly suspicous the Fed officials at PRINT HQ will do a compromise.. and hike rates by either a tenth (the ECB moves in tenths).. or 12/13bps.. aka.. an eighth of a full point.
If that is the case... the market would probably rally on the notion that even if rates are hiked by 10bps at EVERY FOMC meeting in 2016.. .we won't see 1% until spring 2017.
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Overnight Asia action...
Japan: -1.7% in the 18500s.... the big 20K threshold is now a long way up.
China: -0.3% @ 3510. A December close above the monthly 10MA (3734) looks difficult.
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Have a good Tuesday
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8.38am... CPI... 0.0%.. m/m
y/y (less food/energy)... 2.0%... Hmm
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Empire state -4.6.. (prior -10).. still a lousy number.. but above market expectations.. so its 'fine'.. right?
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notable movers...
DIS +1.7% in the $111s
GDX +1.1%.. as metals are stablising (if briefly)
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Watching clown finance TV.... Valeant CEO... not the bounciest of guest... stock is +5%.
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9.00am.. sp +19pts.. that makes for 2040... 10pts from gap zone.