Tuesday, 29 December 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed moderately weak, sp -4pts @ 2056 (intra low 2044). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.7% and -0.6% respectively. Near term outlook offers the 2042/36 zone, before making a push to 2080/90 for the Thursday/year end close.




*It is notable that the 'old leader' - Trans, is almost a full 700pts (around 9%) below its 200dma. It sure doesn't look likely that we'll see sustained action >8300 any time soon.

Equity bulls should be mindful that the old leader remains very weak, and that is with consistently lower energy/fuel prices. 

From a pure cyclical perspective, the underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is still on the low side, and renewed upside into year end/early 2016 looks due.

The ultimate issue is whether the market can break new historic highs (at least in some indexes), and whether it can hold such levels.. or completely unravels. Current price action is increasingly suggestive that the US (and other world) equity markets are facing a major problem in 2016.

Update from Riley

a little more later....  with a request to YOU !