sp'monthly1b
Dow, monthly2
Summary
*it is notable that with the break into the 16900s, the Dow monthly 'rainbow' candle has turned from red to blue. The equity bears should be at least moderately concerned at this warning of a mid term turn.
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The '10MA' issue will be something I'll regularly highlight in the months ahead.
Even if the market closes October under the 10MA... there is of course always the threat it will re-take it in Nov'... or later.
The exciting scenario is if the market can max out in the sp'2040/60 in the next few weeks.. and then see a sharp decline into end month.... making for a clear FAIL. Such a fail would offer much lower levels into end year/early 2016...
Primary target: 1750/25
Secondary 1600/1575 - an effective test of the old double top of 2000/2007.
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Update from a typical loud Oscar
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs.. but more importantly.. the FOMC minutes (due 2pm)
*there are three fed officials on the loose.. notably.. Bullard at 9.30am.
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FOMC minutes high?
I am aware a few out there are looking for another market top at tomorrow's FOMC minutes release. I kinda understand why they think that... after all, the last top was 2020, and then fell all the way to 1871.
My best guess is that the market will rally into the sp'2000s, and get stuck in the 2040/60 zone. From there, I will likely attempt a re-short.
Goodnight from London