12pm update - bullish sunset.. ahead of the Fed

US equities are holding moderate gains, breaking a new cycle high of sp'2081.. a rather bizarre 53pts (just 2.7%) shy of a new historic high. Despite the gains (including the mini explosion in Oil, +5.6%).. sustained action in the 2100s looks overly difficult. The sun is likely setting on this initial up wave from 1871.


sp'daily5

USO'60min

Summary

So.. sp'2080s have been hit... on Fed day no less.

Best guess remains: a spike high/reversal this afternoon...   most realistic downside target is the 2020/00 zone. I suppose a hit of the 50dma (1990/80s) would make for an equally natural retrace/test.

To be clear... I am NOT expecting new lows before year end.

We broke too far above the monthly 10MA...   and broader price action does not support the notion of another severe down wave to the 1800s.. or lower.

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... sunset... and it ain't even 4pm (GMT) yet...

Awaiting the Fed

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VIX update from Mr T.




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time for lunch