Wednesday 9 September 2015

The bigger picture remains bearish

The four day trading week began on a particularly bullish note, sp +48pts @ 1969. Despite further probable upside into the sp'2000s, the broader picture remains very bearish, with broken monthly cycles, and weekly cycles that are offering the low 1800s, or even 1700s into October.


sp'weekly8b



sp'monthly1b


Summary

re: weekly'8.  A blue candle.. confirming a short term floor, with a viable back test of the broken trend line... which will be in the 2050/70s next week.
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re' monthly1b. Again, the ultimate issue is whether the bull maniacs can re-take the 10MA.. which in my view is rather critical. There will not likely be any clarity on that issue though until spring 2016.
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Looking ahead

Wed' has no scheduled data of note. The EIA oil report is delayed until Thursday, due to the holiday.
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As for yours truly

Today was okay, having dropped yet another AAPL position at the open. That makes 1 short and 3 longs in AAPL (all good exits), which until a few weeks ago, was a stock I had never traded before.

I'm open to picking up another long position in the immediate term, but not likely in AAPL. As many recognise, AAPL can sell lower after a product announcement, and then remain broadly weak for around a month.

So... right now, I'm considering DIS - although a retrace back to the mid/low $102s now looks out of range, or perhaps long Oil (via USO). Despite the unresolved issue of over supply, a return to the $50 threshold looks probable for WTIC Oil, and there is an equally tempting price gap zone around $55. As it is, I might just sit on the sidelines until the FOMC next Thursday afternoon, and carefully wait to launch an initial market short... preferably somewhere in the sp'2050/70 zone.

What I can't do though is short this market, until we're at least back above the big sp'2000 threshold. For now.. I am most certainly in no hurry to pre-empt the Fed.

Goodnight from London