Daily Index Cycle update

US equities ended the week on a very bearish note, sp -29pts @ 1921 (intra low 1911). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -1.0% and -0.8% respectively. Near term outlook is borderline, if market can hold >1900, then 2000 into FOMC week, otherwise... the bull maniacs have a real problem.


sp'daily5

Dow

Summary

Suffice to add, yet another significant net daily decline. It has indeed been a wild few weeks, with no sign that the powerful swings are going to end.

Best guess... renewed equity upside, at least to the sp'2000 threshold.. which would likely equate to VIX back around 20.

Clearly though, if China/Japan have rough Mon/Tuesday sessions, then the US markets are going to open badly next Tuesday .. with sub sp'1900.

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a little more later...