Thursday, 13 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Equity futures are moderately higher, sp +7pts, we're set to open at 2093. USD is rebounding, +0.3% in the DXY 96.50s. Metals are naturally weak, Gold -$7, whilst Oil is broadly flat in the $43s.




So, we're set to open a little higher.

Again, now its a case of whether the market puts in another lower high.. or can break above.. and close in the sp'2100s.

Considering recent price action.. and broader price structure on the weekly/monthly charts, I expect the market to rollover and break lower to the 2050/40s within the next few days.

*I am rather heavy long-VIX from the mid 14s.

Overnight China action: moderate chop for much of the day, but climbing into the close, the Shanghai comp' settled +1.8% @ 3954. The 4K threshold is obviously proving to be tough to close above. The 3200/3000 zone still looks highly probable.

*awaiting retail sales data (8.30am)

Have a good Thursday.

7.59am... sp +5pts.. 2091....

Meanwhile... some lunatic just had this aired...

What kind of crazy talk is that?

8.30am.. Retail sales:  0.6% (-0.3% previous) vs 0.5% expected.

weekly jobs:  274k...  inline.

Futures remain unmoved.. sp +5pts.. 2091.

notable weakness: Oil, -1.0% in the $42s.

WTIC Oil, weekly2

A break under the March low of $42.41 would really help the equity bears. First target would be 40/39... and eventually... 35 or so. At that level, even OPEC might finally agree to supply cuts at the next meeting in December.

8.54am... Cramer appears on clown finance TV, looking like he has been removed from suicide watch. After all... yesterdays second sig' opening decline really did spook the cheerleaders.

With Oil weakening, equities are cooling from overnight highs.... sp +2pts... 2088

9.03am... sp' u/c.... set to open 2086.  It won't take much to see the 2070s today. Things only get interesting again on a break into the 2060s... along with VIX 15s.