Daily Index Cycle update

US equities closed a little weak, sp -4pts @ 2104 (intra high 2114). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.3% and +0.5% respectively. Near term outlook is for renewed equity weakness, and if the 200dma (2070s next week) can be closed under.. there is empty air to the giant 2000 threshold... which would equate to VIX in the low 20s.


sp'daily5

Dow

Trans

Summary

*the market laggard - Trans, continues to hold above the old descending channel... but broadly... the Trans is still exceptionally weak, relative to the rest of the market.
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Suffice to add, the main market managed to hold most of the gains built since the Monday low of sp'2063. The weekly close in the 2100s is a notable victory for the equity bulls, along with a third daily close above the 50dma.

As things are, the hourly cycle is offering increasing weakness across next Mon/Tuesday. The real issue is whether the market can get a daily close under the 200dma, which will be in the 2070s next week.

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a little more later...