Thursday, 6 August 2015

12pm update - significantly lower

US equities are seeing increasing weakness as the market has repeatedly failed to break/hold above the sp'2100 threshold. The VIX is starting to show some initial upside power... the 15s look due tomorrow. The ultimate issue now is whether the 200dma will be closed under tomorrow.. for a very bearish weekly close.




*there is considerable upside potential on the VIX... the 15s look a relatively easy target tomorrow... 16/17s are possible.. if sp'2070s are lost.

So.. the Monday low has been decisively taken out.. and we're now well on the way to a test of the 200dma.. currently @ 2072.

As I noted last nights Dow post, price structure sure ain't bullish, and indeed, is actually offering a very bearish H/S scenario.

Keep in mind, I've been babbling on about that scenario for a few months... not least as stocks like INTC offer an indirect signal of where the broader market was likely headed. Similarly.. AAPL and DIS are following.

VIX update from Mr T.


Very special note...

Dow, monthly'2, rainbow

The first red candle since Sept' 2011. Obvious target is the lower bollinger... around 16k.. by early October.

time for lunch :)

12.23pm.. I'm surprised at the rate of decline, we're actually going to test the 200dma today... and considering momentum.... likely break it.

Tomorrow could be pretty exciting if we're down another 30 handles in the 2040s... testing the double floor of 2044....

VIX +13% in the 14.19s.... still a long way to more interesting levels of the 16/17s.