Friday 3 July 2015

Looking ahead to the referendum

The sp'500 settled net lower for the second consecutive week, -24pts (1.2%) at 2076 (intra week low 2056). US and other world markets now await the Greek referendum this Sunday. The vote is set to be tight,  if 'yes', market is set to resume higher, otherwise... renewed weakness, perhaps with a washout to the giant 2K threshold.


sp'weekly


sp'weekly2


Summary

*a notable closing red candle on the weekly 'rainbow' chart. Broader support on rising trend remains around the giant 2K threshold.
--

It has been a tiring week.... as for those overspending/under-taxed Greeks...

Mainstream opinion appears to be that a 'yes' vote would be a positive to the US market... although I find the notion of a resigning finance minister (Varoufakis) and leader (Tsipras) not exactly bullish for Greek politics.

A 'no' vote does seem to offer all manner of uncertainty. We'd see Varoufakis and Tsipras remain, and then start issuing new demands to the Troika, backed by a national vote. How the Troika will react to such a result... very difficult to say.


My best guess:  a 'no' vote.

If correct.. I would expect Sunday night futures to be as rough.. if not worse than last week. The equity bears just need to break the 200dma (2054).. and trade into the 2040s. After that.. its mostly empty air to the giant 2K threshold.

Goodnight from London
--
*the weekend post will appear on Friday... and will detail the world monthly indexes