Saturday 27 June 2015

China continues to shudder

Regardless of the ongoing Greek drama, the most notable aspect of the week were the increasingly wild swings in the Chinese equity market. With a Friday net decline of -7.4% @ 4192, the retail amateurs have a worrisome weekend ahead. Further downside to the key breakout level of the 3400s remains on track.


China, daily


China, monthly


Summary

*a sig' net monthly decline now looks probable, which would be the first since June 2013.
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It was a pretty lousy week for the Shanghai comp', with a net weekly decline of -6.4%. Regardless of any sporadic crazy bounces in the days/weeks ahead, the SSEC looks headed under 4K.. and probably to the original breakout level of the 3400s. That would doubtless spook many of the retail amateurs.


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As for US equities...

sp'weekly7


A moderate net weekly decline of -8pts (0.4%). A closing blue candle does offer some hope to the equity bears of further downside next week. The lower weekly bol' will be in the 2060s next week, but that really is about the best any of the bears could be seeking.
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Closing update from Riley


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**Late Friday Greek update

Greek leader Tsipras has called for a national referendum - Sunday July 5th, to allow the Greek people themselves to vote. I would imagine it will be on whether to pass a deal (itself, yet to be clarified).

Clearly, there will not be any Greek deal next week. The payment to the IMF due by end Tuesday will be surely be defaulted on... as the Greek govt' simply doesn't have the spare funds.

I would imagine the ECB will give Greece until after the referendum before removing the current bank liquidity program, even if they miss the IMF payment on Tuesday.

One thing is for sure, I can't imagine the market will open Monday on a positive note with no weekend deal, and a Tuesday payment likely to be missed.

Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will be on the US weekly indexes