Friday, 26 June 2015

1pm update - on the border

US equities remain on the key threshold of sp'2100. If the bulls can't hold the line, there is empty air to the 2090/80s by the close of today. VIX is reflecting increasing market concern, +3% in the 14.40s. Broadly, the daily/weekly cycles favour the bears.. even if a 'dumb bounce' to 2114/19 zone.




So.... a break of 2100 or not?

Really tough to call today.. it remains a bit of a mess.

If I had to call it.. I'd say weakness into the close.. to 2090/80. It remains a case of 'who wants to hold long into the weekend?'.

notable weakness: INTC -3.3% in the $30.90s... for me, it remains a viable proxy/indirect signal for the broader market.

strength: DE, +3.5%, having broken out of a tightening range since 2011. First target is the giant $100 psy' level, with 125/130 next year.

12.58pm.. BREAK of support......... so.. bears back in control...

1.15pm.. Indexes slowly unravelling....  with VIX 14.70s... the mid/upper 15s are viable by the close. Considering the Greek situation, VIX remains bizarrely low. At best.. maybe 16/17s next Monday.