Monday 15 June 2015

11am update - eyes on the bigger picture

US equities are seeing a touch of minor chop in the sp'2070s, but the far more interesting issues are in regards to the bigger weekly/monthly cycles. There are multiple aspects of support in the 2055/45 zone, only with a weekly/monthly close under there, can any equity weakness be taken seriously.


sp'weekly7



sp'monthly3



Summary

*note the monthly 10MA @ 2055. That is something to really keep in mind for the rest of this month. A monthly close in the 2040s would be pretty decisive.
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Regardless of today's close, what really matters is whether we see sustained action under sp'2050.

Clearly, a sig' correction is due... even the mainstream are starting to accept that, but was 2134 the top of this recent multi-week up cycle?

Frankly, I'm still highly suspicious of post FOMC upside..  and the whole 'Greek situation' remains a treacherous one. Why would they not want to kick the can another few months. How long does it take to print a few hundred billion Drachma?
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Without question, with things getting increasingly shaky, those not trading with stops across the next few months, are going to have some seriously bad days. There is no excuse for it.

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notable weakness: TWTR, -4.1% in the $34s.... nothing good there... but then... its a loss making company.

strength: CHK +1.6%... as Nat' gas jumps +3.8%
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11.39am.. Despite a rally from 2072 to 2082... VIX is holding up very well.