Lets take a look at a few bits and pieces to wrap up May...
USD, monthly1
A rather significant net monthly gain of 2.4%, having swung from the DXY 93s to upper 97s. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) remains on the high side, and there remains threat of another month or two of cooling, before breaking new highs >100.7.
Broadly... the DXY 120s look a given, the only issue is whether that is possible late this year.. or not until 2016. Very difficult to say... except that the broader trend is unquestionably bullish.
WTIC, monthly'2
After a new cycle high of $62.58, WTIC Oil cooled a little, settling net higher by just 0.9% @ $60.30. There still looks to be viable upside in June/July to 65/67.. not least if the USD cools back lower. Sustained price action in the $70s looks unlikely for rest of this year, as OPEC look set (Friday, June 5th') not to cut supply.
Copper, monthly
The multi-month up wave has concluded, with Copper seeing a net monthly decline of -5.3% @ $2.73. The low $2s look due in the coming months. If correct, that would bode bearish for Gold/Silver.. along with the related mining stocks.
sp'monthly
A net monthly gain of 21pts (1.0%), having hit a new historic high of 2134. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) remains negative cycle, as momentum slowly swings back to the bears. The upper monthly bollinger is offering the 2170s in June... the 2200s look out of range until July.
Trans, monthly
The 'old leader' saw the third consecutive net monthly decline, settling -3.4% @ 8299.. a full 1000pts below the Nov'2014 high of 9310. Underlying MACD cycle is now significantly negative, and bodes for further weakness this summer. Best case downside for the equity bears would be the lower monthly bollinger, which will be around 7K across the summer. The giant psy' level of 10K now looks out of range for many months.
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Farewell to May... looking outward... across the summer
It has been an interesting month, but I do expect increasingly dynamic price action across the summer/early autumn. There clearly remains a high threat of a GREXIT, and on any basis, that would surely give the market an excuse to sell lower... if only briefly.
Thanks to all those who said hello this month... it makes all the difference!
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Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will be on the World monthly indexes