Wednesday 13 May 2015

10am update - opening gains

Good morning. US equities are pushing upward, with the sp' set to make a higher high (>2117).. to backup the higher low of 2085. USD breaks a new multi-month low, -0.7% in the DXY 93.80s, and that is helping the metals continue to bounce, Gold +$16


sp'60min


UUP, weekly


Summary

*the cooling in the USD has really helped prop up the broader market, and the rate of decline is even faster than I had originally expected.

To be clear, under NO reasonable outlook do I see the USD sustainably trading under the secondary bearish target of DXY 90/89. The 120s look due.. which will have major implications later this year/2016.
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Anyway.. I woke up early... but fell asleep... hence missing the first update of the day. Urghh.

Gold has opened sharply higher, and its getting real close to major resistance. Another day or two higher, and the broader bearish H/S formation will be negated.

GLD, daily


I remain short for now, and it ain't such a great start to the day. No doubt, many of the Gold bugs will be getting overly excited with Gold back above the $1200 threshold. Right now... its clearly a borderline situation.
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notable strength, oil/gas drillers, SDRL +2.3%... as Oil climbs another 1.6%.

*awaiting EIA report (due 10.30am)... we'll probably see a net weekly surplus of 2-3 million barrels.... as based on the API. Oil still looks set for 65/67... maybe it'll max out there.