Thursday, 30 April 2015

Yet another down day for the USD

Whilst US equity indexes saw some moderate weakness, it was just another day for the USD, falling for the sixth consecutive day, settling -0.9% @ 95.32 (intra low 94.68). The first target zone of 93/92 is within easy range by mid May.. and increasingly, the 90/89s look possible in June.


USD, weekly



USD, monthly'3 - outlook


Summary

Little to add from recent days.

USD continues to cool from the recent high of DXY 100.71.... with the Euro continuing to rebound.

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Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs data, pers' income/outlays. Most notable, the Chicago PMI, Mr Market is expecting 50.0 against the previous 46.3. Another number under the recessionary threshold of 50 would be a problem for the macro-econ bulls.
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Chatter from Riley and Heffernan... flash crash, closing of futures pits, and other stuff!


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Battling away

It has been a useful few weeks for yours truly. I am staying clear of meddling in the main indexes (and especially the VIX) Instead, I'm focusing on currencies, Oil, and a few individual companies for earnings.

Next trade... seeking to go long Euro - via FXE, and perhaps pick up Oil-long again.... which looks set to break into the $60s.

Certainly, I remain concerned that equities will rally upward into mid June.. and right now, the USD is currently in sync with such an equity/Oil cycle peak this summer. A major retrace in late Q3 or Q4 still seems possible. For now though, I sure ain't shorting the main market.

Goodnight from London