Whilst US equity indexes saw some moderate weakness, it was just another day for the USD, falling for the sixth consecutive day, settling -0.9% @ 95.32 (intra low 94.68). The first target zone of 93/92 is within easy range by mid May.. and increasingly, the 90/89s look possible in June.
USD, weekly
USD, monthly'3 - outlook
Summary
Little to add from recent days.
USD continues to cool from the recent high of DXY 100.71.... with the Euro continuing to rebound.
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Looking ahead
Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs data, pers' income/outlays. Most notable, the Chicago PMI, Mr Market is expecting 50.0 against the previous 46.3. Another number under the recessionary threshold of 50 would be a problem for the macro-econ bulls.
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Chatter from Riley and Heffernan... flash crash, closing of futures pits, and other stuff!
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Battling away
It has been a useful few weeks for yours truly. I am staying clear of meddling in the main indexes (and especially the VIX) Instead, I'm focusing on currencies, Oil, and a few individual companies for earnings.
Next trade... seeking to go long Euro - via FXE, and perhaps pick up Oil-long again.... which looks set to break into the $60s.
Certainly, I remain concerned that equities will rally upward into mid June.. and right now, the USD is currently in sync with such an equity/Oil cycle peak this summer. A major retrace in late Q3 or Q4 still seems possible. For now though, I sure ain't shorting the main market.
Goodnight from London