USD, weekly
WTIC Oil, weekly
Summary
A retrace to the DXY 93/92 zone looks very probable.
Secondary downside target is around 90/89. That will be difficult to hit, unless the USD falls rather quickly across May/June. I would imagine a retrace will take no longer than 3-4 months.. and we've already seen a good 6 weeks since the peak of 100.71.
Whether we floor in the 93s, 92s.. or even 90/89... is of little importance. What will be critical is the subsequent hyper-ramp to the 120s.. which might occur before year end.
Such a jump would be a major market shock.. and probably offer the best chance of an intermediate equity pull back since summer 2011. Right now.. a market 'upset' looks viable in late summer/autumn.. although I realise that has been said by many.. myself included.. in 2012, 13, and 14.
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Lower USD... implications
ALL US dollar denominated assets will be at least 'somewhat' pressured higher..
Particularly likely to benefit... WTIC Oil, Equities - esp' energy stocks.
Precious metals remain holding a starkly bearish H/S formation, but downside pressure will be somewhat negated by a weaker dollar.
If the USD can cool lower into late June/early July - as seems likely, then analysts will likely be revising outlooks - to the upside, for many of the big internationals. That should offer at least the sp'2170/80s.. perhaps 2200s before next chance of a minor 3-5% retrace.
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Looking ahead
Friday will see Durable Goods Orders... other than... that is all !
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Goodnight from London