sp'monthly
Summary
So... Q1 comes to a close, with a net monthly decline of sp -36pts (-1.7%). Certainly, nothing particularly significant, and in no way does it negate the hyper-gains of February.
Primary trend remains bullish.. but with a bearish MACD cross... the underlying momentum now moderately favours the equity bears.
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China - closing monthly super breakout
As I have been highlighting since last summer, a monthly close in the 3500s would be exceptionally bullish for the longer term. The Shanghai market achieved a powerful net monthly gain of 13.2%, with a decisive close in the 3700s.
Suffice to say.. 5k looks an easy target... and given another two years... the Oct'2007 high of 6124 looks set to be surpassed by a very large amount.. even the giant 10k threshold looks viable by mid/late 2017.
*I will cover the world market indexes in depth this weekend.
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Looking ahead
Q2/April will begin with ADP jobs, vehicle sales, PMI/ISM manu' sector, construction, and the EIA oil report. Indeed, perhaps the most interesting aspect of Wednesday will be the latest oil inventory. Another surplus somewhere in the 7-10 million barrel range seems highly likely.
At some point Oil storage will be maxed out... and then its 'fire sale' time.
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Late evening update from Mr Carboni
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Futures update
As of 10.32pm EST... futures are equiv' of sp -15pts... which would give an open of 2052. Interestingly, there was an earlier low of -27pts.. which is an initial test of the recent low of 2039. Clearly... this afternoon's break of trend was rather significant, and has opened the door to much lower levels.
Frankly, I'd now be surprised if we don't at least test the 200dma, which next week will be around sp'2014/16. ANY break of the 200dma will open up a brief free fall move to lower weekly support... in the 1960/40 zone.
In any case... Wednesday looks set for significant downside follow through, and it will make for a rather entertaining start to Q2.
Goodnight from London