Friday, 17 April 2015

Eyes on the USD

Having ramped last May - from DXY 78.93, to a March high of 100.71, the USD continues to look vulnerable to a significant retrace. A break into the 96s would break the rising trend, and offer 93/92 by June. Regardless of the exact retrace... broader upside to the 120s looks due later this year.

USD, weekly

USD, monthly


... I'm tired.. so this needs to be brief..

To be clear..

I am seeking a USD retrace to the low 90s... then soaring to the 120s.... the latter of which seems possible this year.. if a retrace is complete by June/July.

The implications of DXY 120s

If we do see the 120s - especially if it occurred quickly, would surely result in a broader capital market shock. Oil and the precious metals would be under renewed severe downward pressure.

Even the broader equity market would be hit.. although whether it'd lead to the long awaited 10%+ correction is difficult to guess right now.

Anyway.. first things first.. lets see if we can get the DXY 96s next week.. and then fall for another month or two.

Looking ahead

Friday will see another batch of corp' earnings, inc' the industrial giant.. GE

Econ-data - CPI, consumer sentiment, leading indicators.

It will be opex.. so expect some increasing chop into the weekly close.

Goodnight from London