Wednesday, 25 March 2015

VIX jumps as equities fail

With US equity indexes failing to hold soft support at sp'2085.. the market snapped lower, and the VIX naturally jumped, settling +13.4% @ 15.44. Continued equity weakness to sp'2040 would likely equate to VIX 17/18s. The big 20 threshold looks tough.... even if a test of the 200dma (around sp'2010).

VIX 60min



*it is especially notable that the VIX daily MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle turned positive cycle. In theory.. there are a very viable 2-3 days of further upside.

The failure of sp'2085 to hold was not expected, but once it occurred, the increasing equity weakness was no surprise, and it was very natural to see the VIX break into the mid teens.

I noted the spike-floor candle yesterday, but was overly dismissive of it. Today's closing VIX candle is pretty bullish, and is suggestive of continued equity weakness.. to at least sp'2040.

more later.. on the indexes