Tuesday, 24 March 2015

King Dollar continues to cool

Whilst the main equity market saw some weakness into the close, there was notable weakness for the USD, with a net daily decline of -1.1%, breaking into the DXY 96s. Best downside case remains the 90/87 breakout zone.. from there.. the 120s look an easy 'renewed strength' upside target.. before year end.


USD, weekly, with fib' retrace



USD, monthly


Summary

Little to add... a multi-week down cycle in the USD now looks underway.. which will no doubt help both the US equity and commodity markets.

At the current rate, we'll see a bearish MACD cross in about two weeks. First soft target are the DXY 93/92s... and from there, the 90/87 zone.

On no basis do I see some kind of 'grand top' in for the USD.. which remains King of currency land. A few months of broad weakness would be very natural...having ramped from the 78s last May.

Just recently, it became clear, even the mainstream is seemingly resigned to DXY 120s within the mid term. Anyone who knows their currency history should realise that once the 120s are held, it opens the door wide open to the 160s.

... and the 160s should lead to the realisation that all sorts of 'interesting things' are set to occur across the next few years.

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Late evening update from a moderately loud Mr C.



I find it ironic that Oscar is so twitchy about the post FOMC rally. It remains notable that the R2K broke a new historic high today, with other indexes very close to breaking new highs.

I would guess it is NOT a double top... and that we'll be trading in the sp'2120s this week. Both the smaller 15/60min equity cycles for most indexes are largely reset, and the setup most certainly does not favour the bears this week.
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Looking ahead

Amongst an array of data, we have the latest CPI.
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Goodnight from London