Wednesday, 25 February 2015

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities have turned a touch weak, having broken new historic highs a little earlier. Market is being lead lower by AAPL, having got stuck against the upper rising trend. Metals are holding minor gains, Gold +$3. Oil has built rather powerful gains of 3.7%, but is broadly flat on the week.


AAPL, daily


*I refer anyone to the 'fair value stocks' post on AAPL I did yesterday evening. I am certainly broadly bullish on AAPL, but its natural for a pull back to the 125/20 zone. The latter would likely equate to sp'2060/50s in early March.

So... was sp'2119 a short term high? Until we break <2100... difficult to say.

Regardless, were I only looking at the AAPL, INTC, and HD charts, I'd say a minor correction is underway.. even on a day when the indexes have broken new highs.

*it is also notable that the VIX has turned positive, swinging from 12.86 to 13.90s. A daily close in the 14s would offer initial confirmation of an equity cycle top.

updates into the close... not least if we continue to slip lower.

3.04pm... Ohh the humanity.. the Nasdaq might actually close red for the first time in 11 days.

Notable weakness: AA -5%.... carnage in the aluminium stocks.

3.12pm.. minor chop... but for now... a red close looks due.... being confirmed via VIX.

*earnings due at the close... RIG.       SDRL due at the Thursday open

3.23pm First soft support on the hourly sp'2105/03....  things really only see some clarity once <2100.

Notable weakness:  airlines, UAL/DAL, both lower by around -2.5%...  as Oil prices climb.

3.38pm... a little chop... but still weak.

A red Nasdaq close.... would be clearly a concern... do we move to crash alert yet?

Notable weakness: AAPL -2.8%.. seemingly headed for the low 120s.