Tuesday 13 January 2015

2pm update - bullish train wreck

The earlier high of sp'2056 is now a long way up.. after the market has seen the gains completely fail. The sp'500 and R2K have already turned red... along with a positive VIX back in the 20s. Near term outlook will turn bearish on a break of the 2022 low.. .which is only another 0.2% lower.


sp'15min


VIX'60min


Summary

Frankly, I'm not aware of any particular reason why this market has effectively swung a full 1.7% since 11am, other than straight forward 'selling into strength'.

Surprising day. No doubt.. a lot of bears who were short-stopped in the opening 90mins.. are real mad this afternoon.

Notable weakness, copper miners, FCX, TCK, both lower by a very sig' -6.5%

Copper is -4% at a new multi-year low of $2.61.... next support is around $2.30
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...

1.54pm.. HUGE snap lower.. with the loss sp'2022...  new low 2013.


2.04pm.. only hope now for the bulls is a turn/floor around 2.30pm... but the damage has been done.. its going to be damn hard to break back above the 50dma in the near term.

If any of the econ-data tomorrow.. of Fed beige book fail to inspire tomorrow.... market is going to lose 2k.....

Oh well.. at least its not boring!


2.16pm... A 46pt swing to the downside.... huge spike-fail seen on the daily charts.

A daily close <2010 (which seems likely)... will open up the 200dma of 1965.


2.30pm.. Well, its typical turn time.... even if we have floored at sp'2008.... the daily charts look terrible now.. and today's price action is about as bearish as it gets.

With 90mins to go... a daily close in the 2030s looks just about viable... but still.. that is a long way from the intra high of 2056.