sp'60min
Summary
With the recent perfect re-test of the 1978 low.. there is indeed a viable bearish H/S scenario...
sp'daily4
Thing is... we're only talking about 40pts (2%) under the neckline..so at best 1940/35. Not exactly the big drop many are seeking.
I want to be clear though, I have LOW confidence in the above scenario. Many of the weekly cycles are still very strong, and offer broad upside to new highs in October.
I realise a fair few also seek the above scenario.. and are planning to launch index-shorts in the 2000/2010 zone... personally... I will likely refrain.
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Update from a (not surprisingly) bullish Carboni
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*Thanks for the messages/emails, I am not in the best of moods today... but I will endeavour.. best I can.
8.35am Durable goods orders, pretty lousy -18%.. Jobs data, 293k, a touch better than expected, not that I think most care about the latter anymore.
Seems few want to think about the 25% jobless in Spain, or the 60/70% in Greece... and thats just the Govt. numbers!
Notable early weakness: drillers, RIG, SDRL, both lower by around -0.5%.... although are both approaching next key multi-month/year support. SDRL is currently $27s... should level out around 26/25.
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9.20am... sp' -6pts... the 1990 threshold should just about hold.... but clearly, everyone seems to accept we're going to test 2010.. but that is more likely Monday...than tomorrow.
9.34am.. minor opening weakness.... and those Gold/silver bugs are getting another beat down... time for them to take another transquilser.
*targets remain Gold $1000/900s, with Silver 12/10... before a key multi-year floor is in.... and that of course would bode badly for the mining stocks.
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9.49am.. sp'1985.. hmm, kinda interesting, Mr Market washing out a fair few long-stops this morning...
Latter day recovery looks VERY likely. Eyes to the VIX.. for a turn.