sp'weekly9 - fib levels
Summary
With price action as it is, I'm increasingly resigned to much higher levels. I've raised the target to the sp'2130s - also see monthly'5 below. There are a number of reasons for that, not least that if the market is still cruising higher into the autumn.. then it will surely keep going all the way into Christmas and early spring 2015.
Regardless of whether you agree with the actual wave count, the primary upward trend remains unquestionably strong. Right now, equity bears would have to put in a July monthly close <1900 to offer any hope of mid-term weakness, and that looks very unlikely.
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Video update from an especially bullish Carboni
Oscar's target of the sp'2100s is indeed (and disturbingly) right on track. I'm unaware if Oscar ever looks at Fib charts...
sp'monthly5
The 2130s are a very old fib' extrapolation - from the 2009 low to the 2007 top, that now looks a valid primary upside target. Based on the current monthly rate of increase (40pts), it will take until early next spring to be reached.
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Dr Copper - on the climb
As well as closely following Gold and Silver, I'm certainly also mindful of the more industrial metal of Copper. We saw a brief break of the $3 threshold.. but now we're on the climb, and Copper looks set for the 3.60/70s.
Copper, monthly
Any break above $4 would bode for a significant inflationary jolt to the world economy. Certainly, it would be bullish for the broader equity market, and for the mining stocks. FCX for instance would likely test the big $50 level from 2011.
FCX, weekly
Just this past week, FCX saw strong weekly gains of 6.8%. If you consider the sp'2100s are going to be hit - along with rising copper prices, then FCX has a very high chance of pushing another 25% or so higher.. to hit $50.
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Digging out of the trenches
Yours truly is naturally underwater on the long side (yeah, the irony). WFM has managed to string together a few daily gains, and is on the edge of making an attempt to challenge the declining 50 day MA.
WFM, daily
If WFM can clear the $40.75/41.00 zone next week, there is a fair chance for 42/43..which would be somewhat 'useful' for me. Certainly, it looks okay for $48... but that could be another 2-3 months out, and as an options trader, I'm facing the ticking clock.
Anyway, I'll give WFM the entirety of next week, and see where it is trading next Friday afternoon.
Two big games coming up today, France/Germany.. and Brazil/Columbia. That will be a great lead in for the weekend :)
Enjoy your Friday
Ohh, and for you Americans out there...
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*next post will be Saturday, on the World monthly indexes