Good morning. Futures are borderline significantly lower, sp -16pts, we're set to open at 2044, breaking the recent low of 2049. A retrace finally appears to be underway. Metals are rising, Gold +$12. Oil is bouncing, +1.0%.
With follow through from yesterday - we have the first notable 2 days of decline since mid October, a retrace is very likely now underway.
The issue of course... how low?
Primary fib retrace zone is sp'2020/1980. Certainly, the latter would be something interesting for the day-traders out there, but in the grand scheme of things, it is very little for most.
There is a price gap around sp'2015, and the giant 2000 threshold will be damn hard to break... even briefly.
Best guess... market floors around 2000 in first half of next week, and then strongly higher into year end.
Notable early movers
DAL -2% - as oil prices bounce
GDX +2.5%... with metals continuing higher from yesterday
SDRL +2.9%... a bounce, within a very broad down trend. Secondary target $10/7.
Have a good Tuesday :)
8.40am.. sp -20pts... 2040... VIX will be in the mid/upper 15s. VIX target zone is 17/20. Sustained action >20 looks very unlikely.
China market fell -5.4% overnight.. but still.. it has made huge gains since the summer. Still set for 3500 in early 2015.
Regardless, today will be interesting... finally a retrace!
9.12am, momo stocks having trouble.. TWTR -3.1%... $35s.. next support around $30.
Keep in mind, the FOMC is next week, and if we fall into it... then we'll be rallying after it.. yes?
9.24am.. lower bollinger on the daily cycle... 2030/29... so.. we should be -30pts at some point today... biggest fall since mid October. Might equate to VIX 17s...first resistance.
9.32am.. VIX opens +14% in the 16s.... so.. sp'2030 would be VIX 17s...later today.
9.49am... black-fail candle on the VIX.. although higher levels still seem due... across next few days.
Metals catching a fear bid.. Gold +$19