Thursday, 4 December 2014

Daily Wrap

It was just another day for the equity bulls, with notable new highs for the mighty Dow (17924) and sp'500 (2076). Market remains utterly calm and confident, VIX settling -2.9% @ 12.47. Broader trend remains powerfully bullish, Dow 18k, with the sp'2100s look due.




Little to add.. on what was just another day of classic algo-bot upward melt.

VIX' daily3

If Mr Market deems the jobs data this Friday as a 'goldilocks number'... then a weekly VIX close in the 11s looks highly probable.

Closing update from Riley


Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual weekly jobs data, but other than that.. not much else.

Worse trade of the year?

Disqus poster sutluc left a message for me yesterday evening, and brought up the issue of bad trades.. not least those by hitting the wrong option call strike/month (haven't we all done that at least once?).

I was checking on the shipper Eagle (EGLE) this morning.. and noticed the following post on the related Yahoo! message board...

Yahoo poster 'sub3111'

'Can anyone help us? My wife and I have an account with Tradestation for day trading and options trading. This morning I got up and started the computer and logged into Tradestation. Being a day trader and options trader, I saw that EGLE was up a ridiculous percentage. I immediately went and checked to see that we had 3000 shares! I immediately began selling at almost any price I could get and went to tell the wife that we could celebrate. When the market opened I went to look and they showed that we were now 2500 shares short . I called them and they said it was my problem, and that I should read the news. When something like this happens, shouldn't a company who want the business of day traders to keep their clients accounts updated for when the pre-market opens. I see where they made the changes at 9:15 am'

Original post link - HERE

So.. EGLE did a restructuring... the shares saw a reverse split of 1 for 6... with some trading screens displaying the new higher price... but not adjusting the share count for a given trading account.

Urghhhh. So much for Tradestation eh? Although I'd guess there is something in the T&C's to legally protect them from clients trying to claim its 'the brokers fault'.

*in a related issue. I certainly continue to keep an eye on Dry Ships (DRYS)... now set to lose the $1 level. A reverse split for that one also seems a given.

Finally, a note on King dollar

USD, monthly, 15yr

The break into the 89s today was significant, and the USD looks set to break the March'2009 high of 89.11. After that, its the 92s from 2005. The giant 100 'basket' level looks viable next year.

Armstrong - whom I closely follow, was earlier today alluding to the Feb' 1985 high of 164.72. That of course seems almost impossible, even given 4-6 years... but then.... we know the Euro is going to disintegrate, yes? We know the Japanese Yen is also going to near zero...yes? On that consideration.. a doubling in the value of the USD looks possible, but clearly... that is some years away.

A closing thought... what will the dollar doomers (not least, Peter Schiff) say, if the USD continues to climb across next year?

Goodnight from London