sp'weekly
Summary
I'm tired... and for many equity bears, I think it has been a worse week than the previous two. After all, many expected a bounce of some significant degree.. into the mid 1900s. Yet.. here we are... continuing to power higher... way past the Alibaba high of 2019.
When will the current rally from sp'1820 stop? A short term retrace seems highly likely... but with each passing day, the downside target just gets higher and higher. Even the sp'1970s - around 3% lower, seem 'tough'. It would seem though that a retrace is all the bears are going to get, with a much bigger upside target.. at least to the 2130s.
Time for another glass of vodka
From now on, in my 'world monthly indexes' post, I will include Russia (I will drop Italy). The Russian market has had a really tough time since the initial bounce from spring 2009 into early 2011.
Russia, monthly
Today was the first time since Aug'2009, that the RTSI'50, went sub 1000. Just reflect upon the fact that whilst most US/EU indexes have all doubled up, the Russian market has effectively been cut in half.
At least to some degree, President Putin must be under some pressure from the Russian financial sector. No doubt falling oil prices are a large part of what is causing the latest equity down wave, since the summer equity peak.
Russian equity bulls need to see a monthly close in the 1400s, before they can get confident that the 3 year decline (giant bullish wedge?) is over.
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*I have no positions, with little inclination to get involved in anything for the remainder of the year.
Goodnight from London
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*the weekend post will be on the US monthly indexes