Dow, monthly'3b - fib levels
SP, monthly'5b - fib levels
Summary
*first, it is again worth noting that the closing monthly candles for October were extremely bullish, with huge spike-floors, and we're certainly seeing some significant follow through.
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I can safely say some of you are saying 'ohh noes... look what he is calling for now... THAT is clearly sign of a top'.
Sorry, but no. This is not the first time.. and just because I'm calling for higher levels, doesn't mean it can't happen. Don't over think things!
I myself waved a giant white flag in summer 2013 - as the market failed to break back below the old 2000/2007 double top of the mid sp'1500s. Subsequently, I wasn't short the market from the sp'1500s to the Sept' Alibaba top of 2019.
With the recent sustained price action >sp'1970... once again it has been a time of waving the white flag. There seems ZERO point in attempting swing-trade index shorts.. or VIX longs.. for some months to come.
I realise some of you more adept day-traders out there will remain executing short-side 'scalp' trades.. but.. that is not for me.
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About those fib charts
Near term... we are indeed fast approaching the 1.618x fib' level of Dow 18974, and of sp'2138. Both targets look more likely to be hit in Jan/Feb, than this December.
Mid term - considering the increasingly desperate action of the central banks, I am now resigned to much higher levels...
There would seem HIGH probability of a 2.618x fib... Dow 26702... with Sp'3047
I do sincerely realise a few of you are now getting real moody and may be about to flip to another website, but I would hope most of you will keep an open mind on what might be ahead.
The CBs in 2015/16
What if the US central bank launch QE4, along with the ECB (T-bonds.. not just asset purchases from the banks), along with other central bank actions next year? If the US federal reserve can't restrain itself next spring/summer, and does launch QE4, then we look set for continued.. and perhaps accelerated 'crazy ass' upside.
Armstrong - Dow 43k
As many of you might know, I closely follow Armstrong, and he again recently threw out the scenario of Dow 43k. Having calculated the Fib' levels... we would need a 4.618x to get close to that... of Dow 42158... along with sp'4865.
Seriously... how scary would that be? A true hyper-bubble, to rival the Tulip or South Sea bubbles.
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As ever... the above numbers should be taken with some due scepticism, but then sp'2000 seemed like 'crazy talk' back in late 2011.
Goodnight from London
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*the weekend update will be on the US weekly indexes