Wednesday 5 November 2014

Daily Wrap

US equities saw a day of weak chop ahead of the US mid term elections, sp -5pts @ 2012. The VIX clawed a little higher, +1.1% @ 14.89 (intra high 15.93). Near term outlook is for a decline to the 1980/70 zone, with VIX 17/18s.


sp'daily3


VIX'daily3


Summary

Suffice to say, a relatively quiet day in market land.

A notable new historic high in the transports, no doubt largely due to the continuing declines in Oil prices. Airlines are literally flying to the moon, with many having soared 40% across just 15 trading days.
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Looking ahead

The US election results will no doubt have an impact. Hard to say.. which way, until results are known.

ADP jobs, PMI/ISM service sector.

*there are 3 fed officials on the loose.. market will no doubt be listening.
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Closing update from Riley



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No clarity for bears until back under sp'1900

Having ramped from 1820 to 2024 (11.2%), even a moderate retrace to the 50dma will do nothing of significance to negate what has happened since mid October. Until we're under sp'1900 (5.6% lower), equity bears should remain extremely cautious.

*I continue to hold a minor short-index block, but am looking to drop that on any major daily drop of 1.5/2.0%.

Goodnight from London